Natural climate cycles and human-induced global climate change are beginning to intensify rather than reduce each other’s effects, as they do now. As a result, the combination of natural and anthropogenic factors could have the most catastrophic consequences in 2040, according to the Bellona International Environmental Association.

Such a warning will be included in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (MGEIK), which will be presented to the governments of MGEIK member states behind closed doors on May 10, WWF President Alexei Kokorin said. Russian Climate Program.

“On May 10, the main volume of the report on how the climate is changing and why it is changing will be considered completely closed by the governments of the MGEIK member states. These are the rules of business. Scientists first prepare a report and then send it to governments without showing it to anyone. After May 10, it will be accepted by a very limited number of people in all MGEIK member states, including Russia, ”Kokorin said.

In his view, the MGEIK report is not an independent scientific study. It is a review and synthesis of research results that have already been published in scientific journals. Therefore, experts can speak confidently about the content of the report even before its official publication.

The main thing that should be there is information that a “climate bomb” could explode in 2040. If previously it was believed that man has a problem with the climate without problems and gradually deteriorates

the situation is now, in contrast to the previous Report prepared seven years ago, more information has been obtained about ocean cycles and other natural oscillations. Scientists have now realized that in the 2010s, human impact on the climate will be mitigated by natural cycles that counteract human impact. This situation will continue for another 20 years. But then it is clear that the situation will shift from grinding to acceleration, ”said the ecologist.

Now humanity has been given some "respite", but soon both natural and anthropogenic factors will begin to intensify "and the temperature will rise sharply." Then, around about 2070, the temperature rise will slow down again, but then start rising again. Understanding these cycles is the fundamental difference between new knowledge and knowledge from seven years ago.

“When you are told that the temperature of the planet’s surface has not risen in the last 15 years, this should in no way be taken as a sign that human impact on the climate is over. Scientists know this is not the case. They know that it is a matter of introducing natural vibrations to human influence. It is a temporary respite given to us by nature. And this deadline should be used to reduce waste, not for calm and inaction. because it will have a two-way effect after the break, ”the WWF expert said.

Source: http://www.polit.ru